CDS (II) 2020 General Knowledge · Question 8 of 120

Correct — B, 1981. The census taken in 1981 records the growth of the decade 1971-81, and that decade sits at the very top of India's growth curve, in the middle of what demographers call the period of population explosion, when death rates had already collapsed but birth rates had not yet begun to fall. The measured figure is 24.66 per cent, and the population rose from 548.2 million to 683.3 million, an addition of 135.2 million people in ten years. Every option after it is lower: 23.85 per cent at the 1991 census, and before it 21.51 per cent at 1961. An honest caveat belongs on this card. On the Census of India's own figures, as printed in the NCERT table, the single highest decadal figure in the series is 24.80 per cent, recorded at the 1971 census for the decade 1961-71 — 0.14 percentage points above 1981 — and the Ministry of Statistics table of average annual exponential growth rates gives 2.22 per cent for that decade against 2.20 for 1971-81, the same ordering. The official key marks 1981 and that is the answer that scores; the two decades are effectively tied, and a candidate who reasoned to 1971 was reading the published table literally.

• (a)1991 — 23.85 per cent for the decade 1981-91 — high, but past the peak. This is the census at which the slowdown first becomes visible.
• (c)1971 — The census at which the published series actually peaks, at 24.80 per cent for 1961-71, a whisker above the 1981 figure. The key does not accept it, and this card records that tension rather than concealing it, but in scoring terms the marked answer is 1981.
• (d)1961 — 21.51 per cent for 1951-61. Growth had accelerated sharply from the 13.31 per cent of the previous decade, but the fastest decades were still ahead.

India's population growth over the twentieth century falls into four phases. Up to 1921 growth was stagnant, held down by famine and epidemic — the 1921 census actually recorded a fall, which is why 1921 is called the demographic divide or the year of the great divide. From 1921 to 1951 growth was steady as mortality began to ease. From 1951 to 1981 it was rapid and high: medicine and public health cut death rates quickly while fertility stayed high, and the gap between the two is what produces an explosion. After 1981 growth remained high but with definite signs of slowdown, and the decadal rate has fallen at every census since.

The question is really asking where the top of the curve is, and the top is a plateau rather than a spike: 1961-71 and 1971-81 differ by about a seventh of a percentage point. That is why this item is worth studying rather than merely memorising. The safe knowledge is the shape — growth rises from 1951, peaks around the 1971 and 1981 censuses, and falls thereafter — together with the reason, which is that death rates fell a generation before birth rates did. The tension between the key and the published table is recorded above and is not hidden: on both official series we checked, the highest single figure belongs to the 1971 census, yet the key marks 1981, and we cannot reconstruct the commission's basis. Present-day position: the 2011 census recorded 17.64 per cent, the lowest since independence, and India's total fertility rate has since fallen to about the replacement level, so no later decade will come near these numbers.

• Decadal growth rates recorded at successive censuses: 1961 — 21.51 per cent; 1971 — 24.80; 1981 — 24.66; 1991 — 23.85; 2001 — 21.54; 2011 — 17.64.
• The 1921 census recorded a decline of 0.31 per cent, which is why 1921 is called the demographic divide.
• The largest absolute addition in a decade is a different statistic from the largest rate: about 182.3 million people were added in the decade recorded at the 2001 census.
• The population rose from 548.2 million in 1971 to 683.3 million in 1981.
• The Ministry of Statistics table of average annual exponential growth rates, sourced to the Registrar General, reads 1.96, 2.22, 2.20, 2.14, 1.95 and 1.63 for the censuses from 1961 to 2011.

• Confusing the fastest rate with the largest absolute increase. The rate peaks around 1971 and 1981; the absolute addition peaks at the 2001 census.
• Reading the census year as the start of the decade. The figure printed against 1981 describes the decade 1971 to 1981.
• Assuming population growth stopped after 1981. It slowed; India was still adding over 180 million people a decade at the turn of the century.

As a highest or lowest growth-rate item across census years, as a phases-of-growth matching item, or as a question on which census recorded a decline.

• practice — not a real PYQ

  The year 1921 is known as the demographic divide in India's population history because of which one of the following?

  • (a)The first census of India was taken in that year
  • (b)The census of that year recorded a decline in the total population
  • (c)Family planning was launched in that year
  • (d)The population crossed 300 million in that year

  Answer(b) The census of that year recorded a decline in the total population — a fall of 0.31 per cent, after which India's population has grown at every census.

• practice — not a real PYQ

  The period 1951 to 1981 in India's demographic history is best described as which one of the following?

  • (a)Stagnant population growth
  • (b)Steady population growth
  • (c)Rapid high population growth
  • (d)High growth with definite signs of slowing down

  Answer(c) Rapid high population growth — death rates had fallen sharply while birth rates remained high, which is the classic population explosion pattern.