UKPSC Prelims 2024 General Studies Paper-I · Question 56 of 147

Correct — D, 2045.

The National Population Policy 2000 states its long-term objective in one sentence: to achieve a stable population by 2045, at a level consistent with the requirements of sustainable economic growth, social development and environmental protection.

The policy stacks three tiers. The immediate objective is to meet unmet needs for contraception, health infrastructure and health personnel. The medium-term objective is replacement-level fertility (a TFR of 2.1) by 2010. The long-term objective is the stable population of 2045.

The idea to carry away: replacement fertility comes first, a stable population follows decades later. Even after couples average 2.1 children, a young age structure keeps births ahead of deaths for a long time. That population momentum is why the policy's two dates are 35 years apart.

A memory hook from the policy's own introduction: it noted that on the trends of 2000 India might overtake China as the most populous country in 2045, the same year it set for stabilisation.

• (a)
  2030 — 2030 is the target year of the UN's Agenda 2030, the Sustainable Development Goals, adopted in 2015. NPP 2000 predates the SDGs by fifteen years, and its own dated objectives are 2010 for replacement-level fertility and 2045 for a stable population.
• (b)
  2035 — The policy dates its medium-term objective to 2010 and its long-term objective to 2045; 2035 matches neither. The neighbouring year worth keeping separate is 2036, the end-year of the official Population Projections for India and States 2011-2036, prepared by the Technical Group under the National Commission on Population.
• (c)
  2040 — 2040 is the horizon of the Economic Survey 2018-19 chapter 'India's Demography at 2040', which projected India's working-age (20-59) share to peak around 2041 at about 59 per cent. That is a demographic-dividend projection made two decades after the policy, not the policy's stabilisation date, which is 2045.

Replacement-level fertility is a total fertility rate of about 2.1 children per woman: the level at which each generation of women bears just enough daughters to replace itself, the extra 0.1 covering childhood mortality and the slight excess of boys among births.

A stable population is a later stage, when births and deaths balance and numbers stop growing. It typically arrives decades after fertility reaches replacement, because past high fertility leaves a large cohort still in its childbearing years. Demographers call this lag population momentum.

NPP 2000 is built on that distinction: replacement fertility is the medium-term target (2010), a stable population the long-term one (2045).

• NPP 2000's immediate objective: address unmet needs for contraception, health care infrastructure and health personnel, and provide integrated delivery of basic reproductive and child health care.
• Medium-term objective: bring the TFR to replacement level by 2010; long-term objective: achieve a stable population by 2045.
• The policy lists 14 National Socio-Demographic Goals, each to be achieved by 2010, including IMR below 30 per 1,000 live births and MMR below 100 per 100,000.
• Other 2010 goals: universal immunisation, 80 per cent institutional deliveries, 100 per cent registration of births, deaths, marriages and pregnancies, and marriage for girls not before age 18.
• If fully implemented, the policy anticipated a population of 1,107 million in 2010, against the Technical Group's 1,162 million on then-current trends.
• A National Commission on Population presided over by the Prime Minister oversees implementation; the policy invites each state and UT to set up its own Commission under the Chief Minister.
• The draft policy came from an Expert Group headed by Dr. M.S. Swaminathan (report 1994); the 1976 and 1977 policy statements were tabled but not adopted by Parliament.
• NFHS-5 (2019-21) reported an all-India TFR of 2.0, below the replacement level of 2.1.
• The policy's introduction noted that on the trends of 2000 India might overtake China as the most populous country in 2045.

• Swapping the two policy dates: 2010 belongs to replacement-level fertility (medium-term), 2045 to a stable population (long-term).
• Treating 'stable population' as the same thing as 'replacement fertility'; momentum keeps a population growing for decades after TFR reaches 2.1, which is why the policy's two dates differ.
• Importing projection horizons from other documents - 2036 (Technical Group projections), 2040/2041 (Economic Survey 2018-19), 2030 (SDGs) - when the policy's own objectives are dated 2010 and 2045.
• Assigning the chair of the National Commission on Population to the Health Minister; the policy places the Prime Minister in the chair, with Chief Ministers and the Family Welfare minister as members.

• practice — not a real PYQ

  The medium-term objective of the National Population Policy 2000 was to bring the Total Fertility Rate to replacement level by:

  • (a)2005
  • (b)2010
  • (c)2015
  • (d)2020
  Answerb — The policy text sets the medium-term objective as replacement-level TFR by 2010, and dates each of its 14 socio-demographic goals to 2010 as well. The policy's other dated objective is 2045, for a stable population; 2005, 2015 and 2020 match neither of its two target years.
• practice — not a real PYQ

  Consider the following statements about the National Population Policy 2000: 1. Its long-term objective is to achieve a stable population by 2045. 2. The National Commission on Population set up under it is presided over by the Union Minister of Health and Family Welfare. 3. The draft of the policy was prepared by an Expert Group headed by Dr. M.S. Swaminathan. Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

  • (a)1 only
  • (b)1 and 3 only
  • (c)2 and 3 only
  • (d)1, 2 and 3
  Answerb — Statement 1 is the policy's long-term objective verbatim. Statement 3 is correct: the draft came from the Expert Group headed by Dr. M.S. Swaminathan, which reported in 1994.

  Statement 2 is wrong: the National Commission on Population is presided over by the Prime Minister, with Chief Ministers and the central Family Welfare minister as members. So c and d fail on statement 2, and a omits the correct statement 3.

• practice — not a real PYQ

  India's Total Fertility Rate fell to 2.0 in NFHS-5 (2019-21), yet its population is projected to keep growing for decades. The chief reason is:

  • (a)net immigration from neighbouring countries
  • (b)population momentum: the large cohorts born under earlier high fertility are still in their reproductive years
  • (c)a fall in life expectancy at birth
  • (d)a rise in the average age at marriage of women
  Answerb — Past high fertility left a large share of the population in its childbearing years, so births stay ahead of deaths even after fertility reaches replacement level. NPP 2000 itself identifies this momentum as the largest single contributor to India's growth.

  (a) India is a net sender of migrants abroad, not a net receiver. (c) A fall in life expectancy raises deaths and slows growth. (d) Later marriage delays and reduces births, which also slows growth.

• practice — not a real PYQ

  The National Population Policy 2000 anticipated that, if fully implemented, India's population in 2010 would be about:

  • (a)1,029 million
  • (b)1,107 million
  • (c)1,162 million
  • (d)1,211 million
  Answerb — The policy anticipated 1,107 million people in 2010 if a TFR of 2.1 were reached by that year. (c) 1,162 million is what the Technical Group on Population Projections expected for 2010 if the trends of 2000 continued.

  (a) is close to the 2001 Census count of about 1,029 million. (d) is close to the 2011 Census count of about 1,211 million; neither is a figure the policy attached to 2010.