UPPSC 2023 Prelims GS Paper-I · Question 113 of 150

Per the official UPPSC key, the answer is B — Year 2070. 'Population stabilisation' is the stage at which the population stops growing, reached some years after the total fertility rate settles at the replacement level (~2.1). In all honesty the exact target year is not settled across sources: India's National Population Policy, 2000 stated its long-term objective as a stable population by 2045, and different official/UN projections place India's peak or stabilisation anywhere from the mid-2040s to around the 2060s-2070s. Candidates should mark the year the paper's key uses — here 2070 — while knowing the underlying figure is genuinely contested; do not treat any single year as an undisputed fact.

• (a)Year 2080 — Not the year recorded by the key, and no standard Indian population-policy document fixes 2080 as the stabilisation target.
• (c)Year 2045 — The tempting distractor — 2045 is the year named in the National Population Policy, 2000 as the long-term goal for a stable population (and UPSC's own 2008 prelims used 2045). The UPPSC 2023 key, however, marks 2070, not 2045 — a real discrepancy between the two exams.
• (d)Year 2075 — Not the year recorded by the key; a near-miss decoy sitting close to 2070/2080.

'Population stabilisation' means the point at which a country's population stops growing — reached some years after the total fertility rate (TFR) falls to and stays at the replacement level of about 2.1 children per woman, because of population momentum from a young age structure. India's National Population Policy, 2000 set replacement-level TFR as its medium-term goal and framed a long-term stabilisation objective; the precise stabilisation year is stated differently across policy documents and projections.

The safe strategy is to answer with the year the source being tested uses — here the UPPSC key gives 2070. But note the genuine ambiguity: NPP-2000 named 2045, while some later demographic/UN projections push India's peak/stabilisation into the 2060s-2070s. Match the year to the document, and do not assume any one year is universally 'the' answer.

• Population stabilisation follows the population-momentum lag after TFR reaches replacement level (~2.1).
• National Population Policy, 2000 set replacement-level TFR as the medium-term goal and named a long-term stabilisation objective (2045 in the NPP-2000 text).
• Estimates of India's stabilisation/peak year vary across official and UN projections (mid-2040s to around the 2060s-2070s) — the figure is not uniform.
• The UPPSC 2023 key marks 2070 for this item, whereas UPSC's 2008 prelims (per NPP-2000) used 2045 — a documented difference between exams.

• Assuming 2045 (the NPP-2000 year) is universally 'correct' — different exams/keys use different target years
• Confusing 'replacement-level fertility' (a rate) with 'population stabilisation' (a later stage that follows it)

This area is asked as the 'target year for population stabilisation / replacement-level fertility' — always answer with the year the specific document (NPP-2000 or the paper's key) uses, because sources differ.

• practice — not a real PYQ

  Replacement level of fertility corresponds to a total fertility rate (TFR) of about:

  • (a)1.5
  • (b)2.1
  • (c)3.0
  • (d)4.0

  Answer(b) 2.1 children per woman — the level at which a generation exactly replaces itself.

• practice — not a real PYQ

  India's National Population Policy was adopted in which year?

  • (a)1976
  • (b)1993
  • (c)2000
  • (d)2010

  Answer(c) 2000 — it set medium-term and long-term population goals.