Broadly both birth and death rates are low in which one of the following stages of demographic transition model?
- (a)High stationary stage
- (b)Early expanding stage
- (c)Late expanding stage
- (d)Low stationary stage
Correct — D, Low stationary stage. The demographic transition model traces a population through four stages as an economy develops. The last of them, the low stationary stage, has a low birth rate and a low death rate together, so natural increase is small and the population size is roughly steady — which is what 'stationary' records and 'low' qualifies. Contraception, late marriage, urban living, education and the cost of raising children have by then pulled fertility down to meet the low mortality that better food, water and medicine achieved a stage or two earlier.
- (a)High stationary stage — The high stationary stage also has a stationary population, but for the opposite reason: both rates are high and they cancel out. This is the pre-industrial pattern of famine, epidemic and large families.
- (b)Early expanding stage — In the early expanding stage the death rate falls sharply while the birth rate stays high, which is what produces the population explosion. Only one rate is low.
- (c)Late expanding stage — In the late expanding stage the death rate is already low and the birth rate is falling but has not yet caught up, so growth continues at a slowing pace.
The demographic transition model links population change to economic development. Stage one, high stationary, has high birth and death rates and little growth. Stage two, early expanding, sees mortality collapse as sanitation, food supply and medicine improve while fertility stays high, and the population grows fastest. Stage three, late expanding, sees fertility begin to fall. Stage four, low stationary, has both rates low. Some accounts add a fifth stage of declining population where fertility settles below the replacement level.
Two of the four names contain the word 'stationary', and that is the trap — a stationary population can arise either from two high rates cancelling or from two low ones. The qualifier decides which, so the answer is the option that says 'low'. The order is worth carrying as a sequence rather than as four separate labels, since UPSC has asked it precisely as a chronological ordering.
- Stage one, high stationary, has high birth and death rates and slow growth.
- Stage two, early expanding, has a falling death rate with a still-high birth rate and the fastest growth.
- Stage three, late expanding, has a low death rate and a falling birth rate.
- Stage four, low stationary, has both rates low and little natural increase.
- A fifth stage of population decline is recognised where fertility falls below replacement level.
- High stationary — birth rate high, death rate high, population nearly steady
- Early expanding — death rate falls sharply, birth rate stays high, growth is fastest
- Late expanding — death rate low, birth rate now falling, growth slows
- Low stationary — birth rate low, death rate low, population nearly steady again
Both the first stage and the last are stationary; only the last has both rates low.
- Choosing high stationary because the population is also steady there.
- Assuming growth is fastest in the last stage rather than the second.
- Mixing up the early and late expanding stages, which differ in which rate is moving.
Asked as a stage-identification item; UPSC has set the same model as a chronological sequencing question, which needs the whole order rather than one label.
Consider the following specific stages of demographic transition associated with economic development: 1. Low birthrate with low death rate 2. High birthrate with high death rate 3. High birthrate with low death rate Select the correct order of the above stages using the codes given below:
- (a) 1, 2, 3
- (b) 2, 1, 3
- (c) 2, 3, 1
- (d) 3, 2, 1
Answer(c) 2, 3, 1
The same four-stage model asked as a sequence, and its first listed stage — low birth rate with low death rate — is exactly the stage this CAPF item is naming.
- practice — not a real PYQ
The population grows fastest in which stage of the demographic transition model?
- (a)High stationary
- (b)Early expanding
- (c)Late expanding
- (d)Low stationary
Answer(b) Early expanding — the death rate has fallen sharply while the birth rate is still high.
- practice — not a real PYQ
A population pyramid with a narrow base and a broad top is characteristic of
- (a)the high stationary stage
- (b)the early expanding stage
- (c)the low stationary stage
- (d)a country with very high fertility
Answer(c) the low stationary stage — low fertility narrows the base and low mortality widens the upper age groups.